Occam's Razor, Hanlon's Razor, and 5 other razors to help you make better decisions

Powerful mental models for success

The difference between a millionaire and a broke entrepreneur often comes down to seven seconds.

That's how long it takes to make most decisions. Seven seconds to choose the right path or the wrong one. Seven seconds to see through the bullshit or fall for it. Seven seconds to cut through complexity or get tangled in it.

Most people spend those seven seconds overthinking, second-guessing, and paralyzing themselves with analysis. They treat every decision like a life-or-death chess match, when really they just need a sharper blade.

Most solopreneurs navigate decisions like drunk sailors in a storm… lurching from one choice to the next, guided by emotion, bias, and whatever podcast they listened to last.

But what if I told you that some of history's sharpest minds have already done the heavy lifting for you? They've distilled centuries of wisdom into simple, cutting tools that slice through complexity like a hot knife through butter.

These tools are called "razors". And once you understand them, you'll wonder how you ever made decisions without them.

Why Are They Called Razors, and Why Should You Care?

The term "razor" comes from the idea of cutting away unnecessary complexity. Like a blade that shaves off excess, these principles help you eliminate the noise and focus on what matters.

They're mental shortcuts that have been battle-tested by philosophers, scientists, and decision-makers for centuries.

Your brain is terrible at making decisions. It's wired for survival in a world that no longer exists.

It sees patterns where none exist, assumes malice where there's merely incompetence, and complicates simple problems until they become unsolvable. Razors are your antidote to this cognitive chaos.

Every razor you master is like adding another gear to your decision-making engine. The difference between a struggling solopreneur and a thriving one often comes down to this: speed and accuracy of judgment.

That said, let's sharpen your blade.

1. Occam's Razor

"The simplest explanation is usually correct."

Although this is often attributed to William of Ockham, a 14th-century English philosopher, he never actually said it.

But he did argue that we shouldn't multiply entities beyond necessity. The modern version came later, but the principle remains: when you have competing explanations, the one with the fewest assumptions is usually right.

William of Occam

Don't overcomplicate things. The explanation that requires the least mental gymnastics is probably correct.

Your email campaign flopped. Your brain immediately spins elaborate theories: "The algorithm changed, my competitors are using bots, Mercury is in retrograde, my audience is becoming sophisticated..."

Occam's Razor says forget all that: "Maybe your subject line sucked."

Test the simple explanation first.

Most business problems have simple solutions. We just prefer complex ones because they make us feel smart. Stop it.

2. Hanlon's Razor

"Never attribute to malice that which can be attributed to incompetence."

Named after Robert Hanlon, though variations of this wisdom appear throughout history.

Before you assume someone is trying to screw you over, consider that they might just be clueless.

That client who keeps changing requirements isn't trying to destroy your sanity. They probably don't know what they want. That business partner who missed the deadline isn't sabotaging the project. They're likely overwhelmed and bad at communication.

This razor will save your relationships and your mental health. Most people aren't plotting against you. They're just trying to figure it out, same as you.

Your biggest enemy isn't malicious competitors. It's your own paranoia. Hanlon's Razor is your shield against the conspiracy theories your brain loves to manufacture.

3. Hitchens's Razor

“What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.”

Christopher Hitchens, the late journalist and contrarian, popularised this principle.

If someone makes a claim without backing it up, you don't need to waste energy disproving it.

That guru promising you'll make $10k/month with his "secret system" but won't show you proof? Dismissed. That business opportunity that sounds too good to be true but comes with zero verifiable results? Dismissed. That marketing expert who claims to have revolutionary insights but has never built a business? Dismissed.

This razor is particularly brutal in the age of social media, where everyone's an expert and proof is optional.

Your time is your most valuable asset. Hitchens's Razor helps you filter out the noise so you can focus on opportunities with substance.

4. Alder's Razor

“If something cannot be settled by experiment or observation, it is not worthy of debate.”

Named after Mike Alder, who argued that if something can't be tested or settled by experiment, it's not worth debating.

If you can't test it, you can't trust it.

Endless debates about "brand positioning" and "company culture" are often just mental masturbation. Can you test whether your brand positioning is working? Yes, through customer feedback, sales data, and conversion rates. Can you test whether your morning routine is making you more productive? Yes, track your output before and after.

But can you test whether your "entrepreneurial mindset" is aligned with the universe? No. So stop wasting time on it.

If you can't measure it, you can't improve it. Alder's Razor forces you to focus on what's actionable.

5. Grice's Razor

“Prefer the interpretation that aligns with conversational maxims.”

Paul Grice, a philosopher of language, developed principles for effective communication. His "maxims" essentially boil down to: say what you mean, mean what you say, and don't waste words.

In communication, assume people are trying to be helpful, relevant, and honest unless proven otherwise.

When a client gives you feedback that seems harsh, don't immediately assume they're trying to be difficult. They're probably trying to help you deliver what they actually need. When a team member asks a question that seems obvious, don't assume they're being lazy—they might be preventing a costly mistake.

This razor transforms how you interpret feedback, handle criticism, and build relationships.

Most miscommunication isn't about what people say but about what we assume they mean. Grice's Razor helps you listen to what's actually being said.

6. Sagan's Razor

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

This is from Carl Sagan, the astronomer and science communicator. The more outrageous the claim, the higher the bar for proof.

That marketing strategy promising 300% ROI in 30 days? Extraordinary claim. Where's the extraordinary evidence? That productivity hack that will supposedly 10x your output? Show me the receipts. That investment opportunity that's "guaranteed" to make you rich? If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

This razor is your bullshit detector for the entrepreneurial world, where hyperbole is the native language.

Most "revolutionary" business strategies are just old wine in new bottles. Sagan's Razor helps you spot the real innovations from the repackaged mediocrity.

7. Heinlein's Razor

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity—but don't rule out malice."

Robert Heinlein, the science fiction master, gave us this evolution of Hanlon's Razor. While Hanlon tells us to assume incompetence over malice, Heinlein adds the crucial caveat: stay alert. Sometimes people really are trying to screw you over.

It basically means you should start with assuming incompetence, but keep your guard up. Don't be naive.

That client who keeps changing requirements might just be disorganized (incompetence). But if they're also delaying payments, avoiding calls, and making unreasonable demands, they might be trying to get free work out of you (malice).

That business partner who "forgot" to include you in the investor meeting might genuinely be scattered. But if it's the third time they've "forgotten" something that benefits them while hurting you, it's time to consider malice.

You need to be trusting enough to build relationships but skeptical enough to protect yourself.

Heinlein's Razor helps you walk this tightrope. Give people the benefit of the doubt, but document everything and watch for patterns.

Some people will take advantage of your good nature. Heinlein's Razor helps you spot the difference between someone who's struggling and someone who's scheming.

Bonus

Occam's Broom

“The tendency to sweep inconvenient facts under the rug.”

This is the evil twin of Occam's Razor. It's the tendency to sweep away inconvenient facts that don't fit your preferred simple explanation.

Your business is failing, and you blame the economy while ignoring the fact that your product sucks. That's Occam's Broom in action. The simple explanation (bad product) is being swept away because it's uncomfortable.

Sometimes the world is actually complex. Sometimes there are multiple causes. Sometimes the simple explanation is wrong. Be aware of when you're using Occam's Broom to avoid uncomfortable truths.

Hofstadter's Law

"It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."

That project you estimated would take two weeks? It'll take four. Even after you account for the fact that you're terrible at estimating, it'll still take longer than your adjusted estimate.

You're optimistic about timelines because you have to be. But Hofstadter's Law reminds you to build buffer time into everything, especially when dealing with clients.

In a nutshell

Note that these razors can be wrong. They're heuristics, not laws of physics. Use them as starting points, not ending points.

Occam's Razor sometimes leads you to oversimplify complex problems. Hanlon's Razor sometimes lets genuine bad actors off the hook. Hitchens's Razor sometimes dismisses ideas that are true but hard to prove immediately.

They won't solve all your problems. They won't make you a billionaire overnight. They won't eliminate the uncertainty that comes with entrepreneurship.

But they will make you a clearer thinker. They will help you cut through the noise that paralyzes so many solopreneurs. They will give you the confidence to make decisions quickly and course-correct when necessary.

In a world drowning in information, the ability to discern signal from noise is a superpower. These razors are your signal detection system.

Use them. Question them. And remember: the sharpest blade in the world is useless if you don't know how to swing it.

Final Bonus: Bechem's Razor

"Any task that takes you away from your zone of genius should be delegated to someone who actually enjoys doing it."

Okay, I just made that up. But it’s true though. If you're spending time on busywork instead of building your business, you're using the wrong tool for the job.

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Because the best razor of all is knowing when to let someone else handle the cutting.

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