How to stop making DUMB decisions

3 simple strategies for effective decision-making

Last year, I decided to quit my stable job to chase what I thought was my dream business(freelance web development). I did have a backup plan. But I had no real understanding of the market I was entering. Just pure confidence that I knew better than everyone who tried to talk me out of it.

Six months later, I was back to looking for a job, financially devastated, and wondering how someone who considered himself reasonably intelligent could make such an obviously dumb decision.

The thing about dumb decisions is that they come in two flavours. There are the ones you know are dumb while you're making them, such as buying something expensive when you're already in debt, or supporting teams like Manchester United instead of the world champions, Chelsea FC(yes, I’m a Chelsea fan. Bring on banter😂😂).

You feel the stupidity in real time, but you do it anyway.

Then there are the ones that only reveal their stupidity in retrospect. The job you took because it seemed like a good opportunity, the relationship you stayed in too long, the investment you made because everyone else was doing it.

At the time, these decisions felt reasonable, even smart. Only later do you realize how much crucial information you ignored or how badly you misjudged the situation.

Both types have one thing in common: they expose the gap between how we think our minds work and how they actually work. So why does this happen? Why exactly do we make dumb decisions, even when it’s quite obvious we shouldn’t do it?

In this article, I’ll attempt to answer this question and also share 3 things I do now to stop making dumb decisions.

Why do we make dumb decisions?

To answer this question, it’s important to know that human brains weren't designed for the modern world. More than 98% of human existence predated sophisticated planning techniques, which means our decision-making systems evolved for immediate survival, not complex long-term choices.

For most of human history, making quick decisions based on limited information kept you alive:

• See rustling bushes ➡️ assume predator ➡️ run for your life.

• Find food ➡️ eat it now before someone else does.

These rapid-fire judgments served our ancestors well.

But now we're using stone-age brains to make space-age decisions. We're trying to choose careers, relationships, investments, and life paths with cognitive equipment that was optimized for avoiding tigers and finding berries.

The cognitive biases that lead to dumb decisions are systematic patterns of deviation from rationality in judgment, affecting how we perceive and respond to the world around us.

They're not flaws in our thinking. They're features that helped humans survive for millennia.

But what helped us survive doesn't always help us thrive.

Take confirmation bias, for example. In a dangerous world, once you decided something was threatening, it made sense to keep seeing it as threatening rather than constantly reevaluating. Better to be wrong about danger than dead from indecision.

Or consider our tendency to prioritize immediate rewards over long-term benefits. When food was scarce and tomorrow wasn't guaranteed, eating the fruit today instead of saving it for later was the smart move. This psychological bias toward short-term thinking comes directly from our evolutionary history.

And that’s partly because we make most decisions unconsciously. Research suggests that up to 95% of our choices happen below the level of conscious awareness. Your brain is constantly processing information, making judgments, and nudging you toward actions based on patterns it learned long before you were even aware you were learning them.

Our brains have a limbic-reward network that gets activated by tempting options, and a prefrontal-executive network that's active during careful decision-making. The relative level of activation between these two networks can actually predict which choice you'll make.

The limbic system

So when you're standing in front of the dessert menu telling yourself you'll just have fruit, your limbic system is already lighting up like a Christmas tree at the thought of chocolate cake, while your prefrontal cortex is doing the mental equivalent of quietly raising its hand in the back of the classroom.

But just because we’re hardwired this way, doesn’t mean we can’t unwire and adapt to the modern world. It doesn’t mean we can’t stop making dumb decisions.

Three ways to stop making dumb decisions

1. Create friction for impulsive decisions

The first strategy is embarrassingly simple: slow down. Most dumb decisions happen when we're running on autopilot, letting our unconscious patterns drive.

I made the decision to quit my job just a few days after receiving my first payment for a website I built. I felt this urgent need to act, like the opportunity would disappear if I didn't move immediately. That sense of urgency was my first red flag, but I ignored it.

Now I have a rule: any decision that can't wait 48 hours probably shouldn't be made. For bigger decisions, I wait proportionally longer.

You’re right to think this makes you indecisive. But I think it also gives your rational mind time to catch up with your emotional impulses.

When we're in emotional states, excited, angry, fearful, the limbic system essentially hijacks the prefrontal cortex, where rational thinking happens. Bounded rationality research shows that our optimization and reasoning abilities are limited when we're processing high emotional content. Time creates distance, and distance allows perspective.

I use what I call "friction strategies". For online purchases, I never buy anything the first time I see it. I bookmark it and come back later. For important emails(note that I didn’t say ‘urgent emails’), I write them but don't send them immediately. For relationship decisions, I sleep on it before having the conversation.

These delays feel annoying in the moment, but they're like speed bumps for your impulses. Small delays, enormous improvements in judgment.

There's something almost philosophical about this approach. The ancient Stoics understood that the space between stimulus and response is where wisdom lives. Marcus Aurelius wrote,

"You have power over your mind, not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength."

Creating friction is just a practical way to expand that space.

2. Invert Your Thinking

the late Charlie Munger swore by inversion: instead of thinking about what you want to happen, think about what you want to avoid.

Instead of asking "Why should I take this job?" ask "What would make this job a disaster?" Instead of "Why should I invest in this?" ask "How could I lose all my money?"

This works because our brains are wired to pay more attention to threats than opportunities.

(That’s why I named this article “How to stop making dumb decisions” and not “How to make smart decisions”)

It's another evolutionary feature… missing an opportunity costs you a meal, but missing a threat costs you your life.

When I was considering that business venture, I spent all my time thinking about the upside. How much money I could make, how great it would feel to be my own boss, how impressed people would be with my entrepreneurial courage.

If I had spent even ten minutes seriously considering the downsides; what if customers didn't want this, what if I ran out of money, what if I couldn't find clients, I would have made a very different choice.

Inversion forces you to confront the assumptions you're making unconsciously. Most bad decisions rest on assumptions we never examined: that things will go according to plan, that we're immune to common problems, that this time will be different.

When you actively look for ways your decision could backfire, you often discover information that changes everything.

3. Think Like Your Future Self

Naval Ravikant has a deceptively simple approach to tough decisions: when you're torn between two options, analyze their pros and cons, then choose the one with the most benefits in the long run.

This sounds obvious until you realize how rarely we actually do it. Most of us make decisions based on how we feel right now, not on how we want to feel in five years.

The reason this works is that it directly counters one of our strongest evolutionary biases: hyperbolic discounting. This is the tendency to value immediate rewards disproportionately over future rewards. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, except when the bush is your retirement account and the bird is another expensive gadget.

Research shows that we literally use different parts of our brain when thinking about our present self versus our future self. fMRI studies reveal that when people think about themselves in the future, the same brain regions activate as when they think about strangers.

But that future person is going to be living with the consequences of what you decide today. And unlike your present self, who's distracted by immediate emotions and short-term pressures, your future self has a much clearer view of what actually mattered.

When I was deciding whether to quit my job, I was thinking about how trapped I felt in that moment, how exciting it would be to be my own boss, how impressive it would sound at parties.

I wasn't thinking about a version of future me… the version who would need to pay rent and buy groceries and explain to potential employers why there was a six-month gap in my resume.

If I had forced myself to think ten years ahead, the decision would have been obvious. Future me didn't need the ego boost of being an entrepreneur. Future me needed financial stability, career progression, and the kind of experience you can only get by working with other people on complex problems.

Naval's method forces you to zoom out from the immediate emotional landscape and consider the compound effects of your decision. It's like switching from looking through a microscope to looking through a telescope.

The key is to be honest about what "long-term" actually means. Not just next year, but next decade. Not just the immediate consequences, but the second and third-order effects. Not just how you'll feel tomorrow, but how you'll feel when you look back on this decision from your deathbed.

Yes, it might turn you into some kind of hyper-rational optimization machine. But it will help you align your decisions with your deeper values and long-term vision of who you want to become. Because ultimately, every decision is a vote for the kind of person you are.

Present you might want the immediate gratification, but future you wants to be proud of the choices you made when it mattered.

In a nutshell

These strategies will help you avoide bad outcomes. But even more importantly, they will help you develope a healthier relationship with uncertainty.

Most dumb decisions happen when we're trying to eliminate uncertainty rather than navigate it intelligently. We make quick choices because ambiguity is uncomfortable. We follow our impulses because they feel more certain than careful analysis.

The most dangerous moment in any decision-making process is when you become convinced you know exactly how things will turn out.

Socrates was considered the wisest man in Athens because he was the only one who knew that he knew nothing. That was the foundation of good judgment.

When you accept that you can't predict the future perfectly, you start making decisions differently. You build in margins for error. You prepare for multiple scenarios. You choose options that work well even if your predictions are wrong.

You stop trying to be right about everything and start trying to be resilient to being wrong about anything.

Smart decisions can lead to bad outcomes because of luck or circumstances beyond your control. But they're still smart because they gave you the best chance of success, given what you knew at the time.

Dumb decisions are ones where you ignored information you had, rushed when you could have waited, or let emotions override judgment when you knew better.

Learning to make better decisions isn't about becoming a perfect predictor of the future. It's about becoming someone who consistently gives their future self the best possible odds.

That web development business failed. But I eventually started another one(weekly newsletter ghostwriting), but this time I spent enough time researching the market, analyzing my expertise and positioning myself to attract my ideal clients. It worked out much better.

Same person, same ambition, better process. That's all the difference in the world.

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I’m Bechem Ayuk, a professional weekly newsletter ghostwriter.

Because I focus on high-quality, high-impact writing, I usually book clients 1–2 months in advance.

At the moment, I’m at full capacity and not taking on new clients immediately. If you’d like to be considered for my next intake, you can register your interest and join the waitlist. (Please note that spots are limited, and acceptance isn’t guaranteed)

Thank you so much for reading. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section. I respond to every comment.

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